As of September 2018, I can say it’s 99% certain that ADA and XLM won’t reach those levels by the end of this year. Moreover, I would say there is more than 50% probability that they won’t reach those levels by the end of 2019. Currently, Cardano is trading at $0.08, and Stellar is fluctuating at around $0.20. Thus, in order for ADA and XLM to reach $5 and $10 respectively, they would need to generate a return of over 6,100% (for ADA) and 4,900 (for XLM). These are astronomical figures even for cryptocurrencies.
It’s true, in 2017, Ripple gained over 36,000% for the year, and the same Stellar had a return of over 14,400%. Why wouldn’t these coins just repeat their performance? Well, as of today it’s quite difficult to double and triple the price overnight. The market has matured, and we observe more stability. Moreover, the correlation of the top coins, including ADA and XLM, with Bitcoin has increased, and we see how the top cryptocurrencies are almost imitating the largest and oldest coin out there. It suggests that we have to wait for positive news for Bitcoin before even thinking about a potential strong bullish trend for Stellar’s Lumens and Cardano. The only time when Stellar and Cardano moved upwards on their own was back in July when Coinbase announced that it would work to add five more coins to its list, including the mentioned two.
Even though Cardano promises to be the blockchain 3.0 and Stellar has the potential to replace Ethereum, at least in theory, investors are not as attracted by altcoins as they were up until January 2018. Today, the cryptocurrency market is dominated by institutional investors rather than retail ones. And, as one could expect, institutional investors are not interested in astronomical and instant returns that come. On the contrary, they are looking for stable and save investment opportunities, and Bitcoin is the first option that comes to mind. This is why Bitcoin’s dominance level has increased to the highest level since December 17, 2017. Currently, BTC’s dominance indicator is above 55%.
Big investors are not ready to bet their millions on altcoins, though they’re open to include some of them in their portfolios. Nonetheless, Bitcoin gets the biggest share. Even Ethereum, the second largest coin out there, is losing ground as initial coin offering (ICOs) are not as trendy as they used to be.
Maybe there will be another wave of “crypto revolution” and hype, but it’s hard to believe that ADA or XLM will reach $5 per coin. This figure might be unreachable for the entire 2019 year. Stellar has had an interesting roadmap so far, especially with the launch of the Stellar Decentralized Exchange. Even so, it was not enough to support a strong bullish trend. On the contrary, both tokens decreased last week after Goldman Sachs announced it would give up its Bitcoin trading desk plan.