At the end of June 2018, Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating near $6,300, as it has gained about 7% in the last 24 hours. However, on the last Monday and Friday of the month, Bitcoin touched the lowest level since November 2017, which means it cut all those impressive gains from December and January. The last bearish trend came after Japan’s Financial Services Agency sent improvement orders to six local crypto exchanges, including the bitFlyer – the largest one. Thus, the exchange operator announced that it wouldn’t accept new users for a while.
Watching the price performance of Bitcoin, you can call it a relative crash already. BTC has lost 60% of its value since the beginning of this year. However, it was an expected move as the industry is maturing, the volatility is fading, and governments and regulators around the world are trying to get control over the emerging cryptocurrency market. It means that Bitcoin is going mainstream, so there will be less space for sudden ups and downs.
However, at the moment, according to some crypto traders, Bitcoin may go even lower in the following two or three months.
Technical analyst Mark Newton recently told CNBC that sees Bitcoin at around $5,000 in the next month. It means that the largest cryptocurrency might touch the lowest level since October 2017, when it started to accelerate its outstanding rally. A Forbes author also agrees that Bitcoin’s next support level is $5,100.
So you might say that now we are experiencing Bitcoin’s crash. However, if you expect Bitcoin to totally collapse this year, you shouldn’t – Bitcoin can never go to zero, at least not within the next years. It’s impossible for it to disappear somehow because it exists on the Internet and its transactions are recorded on blockchain – it can’t go away just like that. And as soon as Bitcoin exists, the demand for it will be there too, at least some demand. This is not about Lehman Brothers going bankrupt or Enron collapsing. We’re talking about a blockchain system that is immutable and can’t be destroyed in any way, at least in theory.
Fiat currencies are sometimes vanishing away because of hyperinflation, but Bitcoin cannot be printed out of thin air. There is a maximum supply limit, and that’s it. Besides, you should know that about 20% of Bitcoin is lost forever, according to some studies. It’s because early miners didn’t expect it to reach this level and just lost their private keys or even threw away their hard disks. So we have a limited supply on the one hand, and we also have huge funds investing in Bitcoin, massive mining facilities, giants like CBOE and CME offering Bitcoin futures for traders, presidents and officials discussing Bitcoin on the other hand – there is a whole network of people who rely on it – there is no such scenario in which BTC crashes to zero as; it’s simple as that.
Last Friday, Allianz’s chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC that if BTC drops to falls below $5,000, this would be a buy signal. In other words, when Bitcoin touches its bottoms, it’s a discount price for investors.
So – will Bitcoin crash in 2018? Well, here it is – this is the crash. You can watch it now. But Bitcoin will come back even stronger and will probably finish this year on a bullish trend.
BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes told CNBC that he still believed the largest cryptocurrency would touch $50,000.
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) June 29, 2018